京都大学 大学院経済学研究科・経済学部

SEMINAR SERIES

Asian Economic Development Seminar

David N. Weil(James and Merryl Tisch Professor of Economics, Brown University)

Date&Time:
2022.10.18 (Tue) 16:45-18:15
Venue:
Mid-sized Conference Room, 3rd floor, Inamori Foundation Memorial Hall, Center for Southeast AsianStudies, Kyoto University
Language:
English
Contact:
Ken Miura (Graduate School of Agriculture), Hisaki Kono (Graduate School of Economics)

Title: "Land Quality"

https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/sites.brown.edu/dist/1/24/files/2022/08/Land-Quality-August-2022.pdf

Abstract: We develop a new measure of land quality by estimating weights in a Poisson regression of grid-cellpopulation on geographic characteristics and country fixed effects. Aggregating to countries, we construct averageland quality (ALQ) and quality-adjusted population density (QAP D). We show: First, current income per capita ispositively correlated with ALQ. Second, while income today is unrelated to conventional population density, it isstrongly negatively related to QAP D. Third, this negative relationship was not present in 1820 and emergedbecause today’s lower income countries have experienced faster subsequent population growth. Fourth, countrieswith higher average land quality began sustained modern economic growth earlier, and this earlier takeoff largelyexplains the modern income-ALQ relationship. We posit a framework in which land quality induced denserpopulations in Malthusian equilibrium and, via agglomeration, earlier takeoffs. Less dense countries experiencedlarger population multipliers during their later demographic transitions due to imported health technologies.

Keywords: Land, land quality, population density, physical geography, economic takeoff, economic growth,demographic transition.