京都大学 大学院経済学研究科・経済学部

"Civil Society and Democratization: Evidence from the Lawyers’ Movement in Pakistan"　Sultan Mehmood

Abstract:
This paper provides causal evidence that civil society can advance democratization. Using the Lawyers’ Movement in Pakistan as a quasi-experiment, we implement an array of difference-in-differences methodologies to show that this lawyer-led civil society movement had far-reaching effects, shaping political attitudes, voting behavior, and participation in democratic institutions—ultimately paving the way for a democratic transition. The movement led to a decline in approval for the autocrat, increased electoral support for the pro-movement party, strengthened trust in the judiciary, and reduced confidence in the security establishment. Over time, districts more exposed to the movement have shown some evidence of greater reliance on formal courts and a potential decline in dependence on informal justice systems. Our findings underscore that civil society can disrupt autocratic power, facilitate democratic change, and enhance trust in formal institutions.