京都大学 大学院経済学研究科・経済学部

SEMINAR SERIES

Asian Economic Development Seminar

Ken Miura(Graduate School of Agriculture at Kyoto University)

Date&Time:
2020.6.4(Thu) 16:30-17:45
Venue:
web seminar by ZOOM
Language:
Japanese
Contact:
Go Yano・Machikita Tomohiro(CSEAS)・Fumiharu Mieno(CSEAS)・Hisaki Kono

Title: "News from the Sky: An Empirical Test of Forward-Looking Behavior among Zambian Farmers"

Ken Miura

Abstract: This study derives a novel and unique prediction of consumption responses to new information by building on a buffer stock saving model with borrowing constraints. While the consumption responses of asset-poor and asset-rich households are close to zero or modest, the middle asset group reacts to advance information the most. This study tests this hump-shaped relationship with asset stock levels with weekly household data combined with daily plot-level rainfall records from rural Zambia. The empirical analysis first confirms that rainfall works as a good predictor of future harvests in the sample villages. Then, the regression results show that weekly household consumption responds to rainfall in certain months, which has sufficient predictive power for future maize harvests. Furthermore, the response is heterogeneous according to the level of grain inventories, which is consistent with the proposed model. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence that while even constrained households can change their consumption schedules before income shocks actually happen by adjusting their buffer stocks, welfare gains from advance information depend greatly on the available asset levels.

Keywords: Consumption, Buffer stock model, Announcement effect, Grain stock, Africa

If you would like to participate in the seminar, please e-mail Mr.Machikita (machi@cseas.kyoto-u.ac.jp) by June 4 morning.