セミナーシリーズ
マクロ経済学セミナー（2024.6.6）（京都大学経済研究所マクロ経済学・経済システム研究会と共催）
阿曽沼 多聞（国際通貨基金）
- 開催日：
- 2024年6月6日（木）15:00～16:30
- 場所：
- 京都大学 吉田キャンパス 法経済学部東館 8階リフレッシュルーム
- 言語：
- 日本語
- コーディネーター：
- 西山 慎一
タイトル：
“Output Dynamics and Private Sector Access during Sovereign Debt Crises”
Abstract:
Output dynamics and private sector access vary across sovereign debt restructurings with foreign private creditors. We compile data on sovereigns’ private sector borrowing from sovereign’ foreign creditor chair countries in 1977–2020. We find that (i) sovereigns with high private sector borrowing from sovereigns’ creditor chair countries choose a preemptive restructuring; (ii) private sector borrowing from sovereigns’ creditor chair countries declines mildly in preemptive restructurings while sharply in post-default restructurings. We build sovereign debt model with endogenous choice of preemptive and post-default renegotiations, output dynamics and private sector access. Our model quantitatively shows that the sovereign’s choice of preemptive or post-default restructuring affects differently the foreign creditor’s net worth and lending to the sovereign’s private sector, and, in turn, this results in different output dynamics. Data support theoretical predictions.