京都大学 大学院経済学研究科・経済学部

タイトル： “Corporate Real Estate Exposure: Measurement and Implications”

Abstract : We construct a firm-level measure of real estate exposure that captures both direct holdings and indirect linkages to the property sector. Firms with greater exposure experience significantly larger increases in borrowing and investment, even after accounting for the value of their direct real estate holdings. This credit expansion is driven by improved cash flow prospects and relaxed cash-flow-based financing constraints, thereby capturing information distinct from that conveyed through the collateral channel. Using a regulatory tightening as a quasi-natural experiment, we establish causality by showing that firms with greater ex ante real estate exposure subsequently experience sharp declines in financing and investment due to deteriorating cash flows, whereas the value of direct real estate holdings does not predict comparable declines. These findings identify a distinct cash flow channel through which real estate cycles propagate via cashflow-based rather than collateral-based lending.