セミナーシリーズ
マクロ経済学セミナー（2023.6.7）（京都大学経済研究所マクロ経済学・経済システム研究会と共催）
Seunghoon Na（Purdue University）
- 開催日：
- 2023年6月7日（水）15:00～16:30
- 場所：
- 京都大学 吉田キャンパス 経済研究所1階 N101/N102
- 言語：
- 英語
- コーディネーター：
- 西山 慎一
タイトル：
“Diagnostic Expectations and Open Economy Business Cycles,” co-authored with Donghoon Yoo
Abstract:
In this paper, we integrate diagnostic expectations (DE) of decision-makers, which are based on the psychological concept of “representativeness heuristic” (Kahneman and Tversky, 1972), into a dynamic open macro model. We investigate how DE influences the dynamic behavior of consumption, investment, and trade balance, comparing to the Rational Expectations (RE) benchmark. Additionally, we estimate the DE model to determine the degree of diagnosticity, predict the sources of business cycles, and identify similarities and differences compared to the estimated RE model. Furthermore, we explore how DE might offer potential remedies in cases where the RE model is misspecified.