セミナーシリーズ
マクロ経済学セミナー（2025.11.20）（京都大学経済研究所マクロ経済学・経済システム研究会と共催）
上田 晃三（早稲田大学 政治経済学術院 教授）
- 開催日：
- 2025年11月20日（木）15:00～16:30
- 場所：
- 京都大学 吉田キャンパス 法経済学部東館 8階リフレッシュルーム
- 言語：
- 英語
- コーディネーター：
- 岩崎 康平
“Strategic Complementarity and Slow Inflation Convergence: Evidence from Dynamic Beauty Contest Experiments”
Abstract:
This study investigates why inflation converges only slowly to its target by combining laboratory experiments with structural estimation. We create a laboratory environment in which subjects act as firms and set prices under Calvo-type stickiness, where profits are determined as a weighted average of competitors’ prices and an exogenously given aggregate price. The experimental results show that both higher aggregate inflation and stronger strategic complementarity hinder convergence to the theoretical equilibrium under rational expectations. Using Bayesian MCMC estimation, we systematically compare subjects’ behavior with rational-expectations predictions, allowing for small deviations motivated by bounded rationality. The results reveal that subjects overestimate strategic complementarity, which contributes to delayed inflation convergence.