京都大学 大学院経済学研究科・経済学部

タイトル: “Maternity Benefits, Consumption and Labor Supply: Estimating Causal Effects with Bank Transaction Data”
 

Abstract:　We estimate the causal effects of a generous maternity benefit introduced in Madrid in 2022, which granted €500 per month from the fifth month of pregnancy until a child’s second birthday to mothers under age 31 with low or moderate income. We exploit the sharp eligibility cutoff on January 1, 2022, using a regression discontinuity design and high-frequency bank transaction data covering daily spending, earnings, and account balances. Eligible mothers received, on average, over €7,000 in benefit payments during the 29 months surrounding childbirth. Total spending increased by about €1,200, implying an average MPC of 0.16, with strong heterogeneity: the MPC is zero among higher-income mothers and rises to 0.41 among lower-income mothers, who show sizable increases in basic-necessity spending and sharp, short-lived spikes in expenditure after each deposit. Higher-income mothers exhibit no meaningful change in consumption and save more than half of the benefit, with no robust evidence of changes in labor earnings. Across administrative, survey, and transaction data, we find no aggregate decline in employment. Overall, the benefit alleviates liquidity constraints for lower-income mothers while leaving labor supply largely unaffected.