David N. Weil（James and Merryl Tisch Professor of Economics, Brown University）
- 京都大学東南アジア地域研究研究所 稲盛財団記念会館 3階中会議室
- 三浦 憲（農学研究科），高野 久紀（経済学研究科）
Abstract: We develop a new measure of land quality by estimating weights in a Poisson regression of grid-cellpopulation on geographic characteristics and country fixed effects. Aggregating to countries, we construct averageland quality (ALQ) and quality-adjusted population density (QAP D). We show: First, current income per capita ispositively correlated with ALQ. Second, while income today is unrelated to conventional population density, it isstrongly negatively related to QAP D. Third, this negative relationship was not present in 1820 and emergedbecause today’s lower income countries have experienced faster subsequent population growth. Fourth, countrieswith higher average land quality began sustained modern economic growth earlier, and this earlier takeoff largelyexplains the modern income-ALQ relationship. We posit a framework in which land quality induced denserpopulations in Malthusian equilibrium and, via agglomeration, earlier takeoffs. Less dense countries experiencedlarger population multipliers during their later demographic transitions due to imported health technologies.
Keywords: Land, land quality, population density, physical geography, economic takeoff, economic growth,demographic transition.